Real Estate October 14, 2022

How’s the Market? Q3 2022 Real Estate Review

While still considered a seller’s market, our July-September home sale activity signaled the return of some much-needed balance.  Seattle and Eastside home prices still posted year-over-year gains in Q3, but rising interest rates markedly slowed the pace of both listings and sales.  Houses also stayed on the market longer than we saw during the frenzy earlier this year—the average Seattle home took 17 days to sell, while Eastside homes averaged 25 days to sell.  Buyers have a great opportunity to negotiate better terms now with an eye out to refinance when interest rates come down in the future.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle  |  Eastside  |  Mercer Island  |  Condos  |  Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

There is a lot of good news in Seattle these days: Progress is being made in taking back downtown, the West Seattle Bridge is open AND real estate prices are UP year over year.

 

Transaction volume is down 35% across the city, which we can likely attribute to the volatility in interest rates, but listing volume is also down 10%. This is comforting! Supply and demand rules the market, and the last thing this balancing market needs is more inventory. We think this drop in seller enthusiasm is likely caused by the golden handcuffs of their historically low interest rates and refinance boom: even if your home isn’t meeting your needs these days, that 2.75% interest rate might be hard to give up.

 

Seattle’s average list/sold price ratio is 97%. This means if you listed your home for $1,000,000 you could expect to sell for $970,000 in Q3 of this year. Compare this with 82% on the Eastside. Seattle home sellers are more realistic and less affected by the price bloat of the last several years. We didn’t boom as hard, and we may not feel the impacts of a market balance as sharply either.

 

Seattle Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Report

 

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EASTSIDE

While we’re finally seeing the numbers reflect what the market has been feeling since May, it’s not as dire as one might think. Sales volume has slowed 38% year over year (based on total transaction count). However, new listings are also down (3%) which means the market reaching its peak has not sparked a sell off. This should keep our new normal buzzing along at pace similar to 2018 and 2019. Great homes that are priced right will sell—21% of homes sold above asking price and 40% of homes sold in the first 10 days.

 

Median list price is down 6% while median sales price is down 14.5%, which means homeowners looking to sell on the Eastside now have some data points to help them with realistic expectations of how to find the market. Average days on market is 25, which is higher than it’s been since Q1 of 2020! This is still slightly under the 6-year average. Don’t be tempted to think that there is something wrong with a home just because it has been on the market for a month; there are a lot of quality homes ready for their new owners.

 

The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.

 

Eastside Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Eastside Report

 

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MERCER ISLAND

Given the broader local news, we might expect doom and gloom from Q3 stats—this expert sees lots of opportunity and much needed stabilization after the crazy COVID boom. While median prices have fallen 1% year over year, the average price per square foot is actually UP. What does this mean? Comparing a median with an average is always a little tricky, but this likely points to a slowdown in the sale of larger homes.

 

To me, the better signs of market predictability are the months supply of inventory for the quarter (about 6 weeks for both condos and single family) and the average days on market (18 for sf and 57 for condo). These are all relatively healthy benchmarks, even though they’re markedly higher than in previous quarters. This is what’s causing media to report doom and gloom: inventory is up sharply (there was ONE active listing at the end of Q4 2021 vs 44 at the end of Q3 2022) and pending sales are down (57 vs. 94 last year in the same time period). When you compare our current numbers to any time period outside of the last two years, we’re faring very well!

 

The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.

 

Mercer Island Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Condos remain the tortoise as opposed to the hare like residential markets of 2020-early 2022. Slow and steady will definitely win this race as the affordability of homeownership shrinks with rising interest rates. Looking at combined condo data (Eastside + Seattle), months supply of inventory is down to about 6 weeks from 2 months last quarter. Low months supply of inventory and low cumulative days on market (23) are two of the leading indicators of market health, and both are as low or lower as they’ve been in the recent past.

 

Condo prices are also holding strong with no change to the average $ per square foot in Seattle and an overall 5% rise in median sale price year over year. The Eastside tells an even slightly better story: a 9% rise in $ per square foot and a 6% rise in median sale price despite a 41% year-over-year drop in the number of transactions.

 

Keep rooting for the tortoise. This is a necessary niche in our marketplace. The first rung on the property ladder is condos again for the first time in a long time, and we really hope our Gen Z and Millennial buyers take the leap!

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report

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WATERFRONT

The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 22’ of waterfront on an 11,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 172 feet in Medina on Lake Washington, which commanded a sales price of $17,800,000.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.

 

Waterfront Report

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Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

Real Estate July 13, 2022

How’s the Market? Q2 Real Estate Review

While Seattle and the Eastside are still considered a seller’s market, buyers experienced some much-needed relief in the second quarter with new listings outpacing the number of homes sold. Rising interest rates have initiated a shift toward a more balanced market. Opportunities abound for both sellers (who are still seeing higher sales prices than this time last year) and buyers (who finally have some breathing room to negotiate price and contingencies). We expect this shift to continue with a stabilization of home prices rather than the steep upward trajectory we saw last year.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

The Seattle real estate market for single family homes is holding steady despite rising interest rates and slowdowns elsewhere in King County! The median sale price is up 9% since the end of 2021 (from $910,000 to $1,000,000). Year over year, the median price rose from $895,000 in Q2 2021 to $1,000,000 in Q2 2022 (also roughly 12%).

 

Anecdotally, we believe that Seattle continues to gain ground because it remains affordable when compared to the cities and neighborhoods to the east. Eastside median prices rose so sharply over the last two years that it left Seattle “in the dust” as the market leader of the region. As we know, slow and steady wins the race, though there is no way to know yet if this particular race is a marathon or a sprint.

 

Interest rates nearly doubled in Q2, though that seems to leave Seattle home shoppers undeterred. 86% of the sales in Q2 sold in the first 10 days at an average of 110% of list price.

 

Seattle Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Report

 

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EASTSIDE

Relief has finally come to home shoppers on the Eastside! New listings are up 13% year over year. Further, there has been a slide in total number of sales, down 18% year over year. This means there are more choices for anyone who is in the market to buy a home. Price gains remain steady for now, up 22% over Q2 of 2021. This is likely riding the wave of growth in late 2021 and early 2022, but with the higher supply and lower demand this is may be a trend that tapers off in the near future.

 

Average price per square foot saw its first quarterly drop since Q2 of 2019, down from $713 in Q1 to $685. The overall median price fell from a high of $1,625,000 in Q1 to $1,610,000 in Q2. Even more exciting for home buyers is that (when in competition) the list to sales price ratio is 109%— down from 119% in Q1.

 

If you’ve thought about selling your home, it’s still a great time. When a home is prepared well and priced right shoppers pay attention. Of the 2177 homes sold in Q2, 84% of those sold in the first 10 days. This isn’t far off of the 90% that was posted in Q1. It is harder to get noticed today than in recent memory—this is where choosing a true professional to partner with is so important! Windermere brokers have their fingers on the pulse and know how to make you stand out in a crowd!

 

Eastside Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Eastside Report

 

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MERCER ISLAND

Mercer Island continues to be a fabulous place to be a homeowner. Median prices and price per square foot both saw increases over Q1 2022 numbers (6.5% and 5% respectively). Anecdotally, there has been a pace change. We don’t expect that to reflect in the stats until Q3, and even then the numbers are likely to be favorable as we gained so much ground in Q1 of this year.

 

The data that supports what we’re all feeling can be found in the relationship between number of new listings and number of homes sold. In Q2, there were 116 new listings and 84 sales compared to the same period in 2021 when we had 124 new listings and 102 sales. So, if you’re feeling like inventory is “up,” it’s not because more homeowners are deciding to sell but rather it appears that demand is down. Another way to look at this is that we sold 82% of the active inventory in spring of 2021 but only 72% in 2022. These are healthy numbers but it’s enough of a drop for us to feel it.

 

If you’re a buyer trying to break in to the Mercer Island market, it’s getting easier. 83% of the 116 new listings sold within the first 10 days for an average of 111% of the asking price. This is the most favorable these numbers have been since 2019. Working with a local pro will be your biggest advantage to determine which homes will sell at a premium and how to get the best deal!

 

Mercer Island Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Condo average prices have seen their biggest quarterly rise since Q3 of 2016! As home shoppers adjust expectations amidst rising interest rates, the affordability offered by condos is an exciting place to turn. We are thrilled to see condos be a viable option as we recover from the pandemic and buyers return to more densely populated areas.

 

North Seattle (up 34%) and Capitol Hill (up 10%) are bright spots in the total number of condos sold year over year for Seattle. This makes perfect sense as both areas offer access to our growing light rail system and new retail opportunities that didn’t exist pre-pandemic. Seattle’s total sales year over year remained flat, literally zero, which means these two neighborhoods carried the entire city.

 

The same data point on the Eastside saw the entire area’s total number of sales fall 27% year over year. West Bellevue (down 51%) and Mercer Island (down 38%) topped the list. Meanwhile, prices on the Eastside are up an average of 20%.

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report

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WATERFRONT

Waterfront season is heating up. As expected, inventory is up from Q1 (32 total sales in Q2 v 17 in Q1), but what hasn’t changed is an average of only 6 listings for sale at any one time across all shorelines! Of all of the waterfront shorelines, Mercer Island boasted the lowest days on market with an average of just THREE days. Seattle had the highest days on market, with an average of 41 days.

 

The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 25’ of waterfront on a 17,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 177 feet in Issaquah on Lake Sammamish, which commanded a sales price of $11,600,000.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.

 

Waterfront Report

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Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

Real Estate April 15, 2022

How’s the Market? Q1 Real Estate Review

Across the region, home values continued to see huge year-over-year gains from 2021 to 2022. Most homes sold in the first 10 days and for well above the asking price. We started the year with an extreme shortage of homes for sale, resulting in an overall lower number of sales compared to the start of 2021. Buyer demand, however, remains incredibly strong.

 

With interest rates on the rise, buyers are feeling more pressure than ever to secure a home. We are hoping to see more listings come to market this spring and provide some much needed relief for weary house hunters.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

The Seattle real estate market for single family homes is off and running! The median sale price is up 6% since the end of 2021. Which means: Seattle’s price gains were as much in the first quarter as all of 2021. Year over year, the median price rose from $800,000 in Q1 2021 to $910,000 in Q1 2022.

 

For anyone who has focused their home search on the Eastside and has come up empty handed in 2021, Seattle could seem like an affordable opportunity this year. Seattle’s price gains were strong, albeit conservative in comparison with the Eastside. More plentiful active inventory (relatively speaking), and a more affordable median sale price of $910,000 (vs $1,625,000 on the Eastside) indicate that Seattle could be a bright spot of hope for any buyers left behind by the Eastside’s double-digit gains.

 

Rising interest rates in late Q1 are sure to play a part in the weary home buyer’s decision-making process. However, the close of quarter numbers are encouraging: 82% of homes sold in the first ten days!

 

Seattle Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Report

 

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EASTSIDE

Once again Eastside Real Estate is off to an incredible start in the first 3 months of the year. Multiple offers and wildly aggressive escalation clauses are the story of the day, and not just anecdotally—the numbers don’t lie. The average list to sale price ratio was a staggering 119%, which means the typical home listed at $1,000,000 sold for closer to $1,190,000. This is an even stronger showing than the previous record high of 112% in Q1 of 2021.

 

New listings were relatively flat compared to Q1 of 2020 and 2021 (1912 vs 2058 and 1935 respectively) while the total number of sales were down 21% (1137 vs 1413 in the prior year). We believe this can be explained by looking at the trailing inventory from the previous Q4 in both cases (1496 vs 1238). There were just fewer homes for sale, certainly not less demand. This was reflected in the overall price gain of 25%!

 

Without a crystal ball it will be tough to tell exactly how much impact the market will feel from the steep rise in interest rates. In the short term, everyone seems to be taking a deep breath as we move into Q2. Overall, the Eastside’s core values—highly ranked schools, community focused neighborhoods, and close commute proximity to some of the area’s largest employers—should keep the area in high demand!

 

Eastside Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Eastside Report

 

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MERCER ISLAND

Mercer Island by the averages was quite shocking in Q1 of 2022: 3 homes per sale per week, 11 days on market, and 111% list price to sale price. This translates to buyers who would have otherwise joined our community casting a wider net to places like Bellevue, Issaquah, and Sammamish.

 

One of the affordability indicators that we historically track has become obsolete over the past few quarters: number of homes listed/sold under $1,000,000. In fact, there was only one home listed under $1,500,000 in Q1. 21 of the 39 homes had sale prices above $2,000,000 and 9 were above $3,000,000!

 

If you’re a buyer trying to break into the Mercer Island market, patience and the ability to act fast are the top two tips we have for you. 85% of the 39 homes for sale in Q1 sold within the first 10 days. Working with a local pro will be your biggest advantage.

 

Mercer Island Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Condos continue to gain ground early in 2022. While the year-over-year median price gains are conservative compared to the single-family market, we see this as a good thing! Condos are a bright spot for today’s home buyers as interest rates rise.

 

Seattle condos saw a 9% increase (to $519,000). Eastside condos are up 16% (to $625,000) a 26% lift in price per square foot compared to Q1 2021.

 

Shoreline and East Bellevue led the market in median price gains year over year, up 66% and 48% respectively. Queen Anne and Kirkland were the most conservative with 1% and 4% gains respectively. 85% of Eastside condos sold over the list price, so if you’re shopping be prepared to compete.

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report

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WATERFRONT

If the first three months are any indication, it will be a tight inventory year in the Waterfront real estate market. On all shorelines, there were a total of 17 homes sold overall with an average of only 6 listings for sale at any one time. The good news is that we’re up from this time last year when there were only 14 homes sold overall.

 

Notably, the highest overall sale (at $12,750,000) was on Lake Sammamish in Issaquah! The most affordable waterfront this quarter was a home in Rainier Beach that sold for $1,362,500.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.

 

Waterfront Report

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Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

Real Estate January 12, 2022

How’s the Market? Annual Report on Seattle Area Real Estate…

In the wake of extreme buyer demand and mind-blowing bidding wars, housing prices soared in Seattle and reached staggering heights on the Eastside. Record low interest rates were the silver lining for those buyers who were able to successfully purchase a home with financing.

 

2022 looks to be another strong year for real estate. Windermere’s chief economist, Matthew Gardner, predicts that interest rates will remain low and home price growth will continue—albeit at a slower, more sustainable rate than we saw in 2021. He also foresees a nice bounce back for our COVID-impacted economy in Q4 of 2022.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

The Seattle real estate market, while extremely active in its own right, was far more moderate than the Eastside’s frenzied and nearly unattainable environment.

 

Seattle’s Median Sale Price increased by 9% to $852,000 (up from $785,000 in 2020). Neighborhoods in Lake Forest Park-Kenmore (+24%) and Shoreline (+16%) outperformed the average, while Queen Anne-Magnolia (+4%) and West Seattle (+7%) lagged behind.

 

Despite the tight supply of homes for sale, there was a 20% increase in the number of Seattle homes sold in 2021 (11,589) compared to 9,682 sold in 2020. Central Seattle (+31%) and Queen Anne-Magnolia (+22%) had the largest increases in number of homes sold.

 

79% of all Seattle homes, and 24% of those priced above $1 million, sold at or above the list price.

 

Homes that sold in their first ten days on the market went for an average of 7% above list price, compared to 4% over if we look at the overall average. The most competitive neighborhoods were North Seattle and Lake Forest Park, with first-ten-day sales averaging 10% above list price.

 

Seattle Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Report

 

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EASTSIDE

To say the 2021 Eastside real estate market was aggressive would be the understatement of the year. Typical home buyers requiring loans to finance their purchases found it nearly impossible to compete with the many cash or cash-equivalent, no contingency offers that often won out. With few exceptions, home buyers had to be willing to sacrifice rights and fail safes—such as inspection contingencies—that are normally taken for granted in a balanced market.

 

The Eastside’s Median Sale Price was $1,350,000 in 2021, up an unprecedented 32% over 2020 ($1,020,000) as desperately competing buyers drove prices to record levels. Redmond (+38%) and South Eastside (+36%) saw the largest gains, while West Bellevue (+25%) had the lowest—albeit still staggering—year-over-year increase.

 

89% of all Eastside homes, and 66% of homes priced above one million dollars, sold for at or above their list price. With fewer than 0.3 Months of Inventory (the number of months it would take to sell all homes currently for sale), the entire Eastside market remained ultra-competitive throughout the year. Many Eastside communities have had only a handful of homes for sale at any one time.

 

Homes sold an average of 7% above list price. For those sold within the first ten days, however, that number spiked to an average of 11% above list price. The most competitive neighborhoods were East Bellevue and South Eastside, with first—ten-day sales averaging 14% and 13% above list price, respectively.

 

Eastside Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Eastside Report

 

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MERCER ISLAND

Fewer than two dozen homes for sale on the Island at any given time in 2021 led to a continued ultra-competitive market. Waterfront, in particular, saw very steep increases during the year as the laws of supply and demand deftly governed prices.

 

Echoing the extreme price increases seen throughout the Eastside, Mercer Island’s Median Sale Price shot up by a staggering 29% over the last year. It’s worth noting, however, that this number was skewed upward by the unusually high number of luxury waterfront sales.

 

In 2021, 82% of all homes sold at or above their listed price. Those sold in the first 10 days on market closed for an average of 10% above their list price. On the other hand, homes on the market 11-30 days sold for an average of 2% below their list price list and homes on the market longer than 30 days sold for an average of 6% below their list price.

 

Mercer Island Recap

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Seattle condos saw a Median Sale Price increase of 2% (to $490,000) and Eastside condos saw a 5% increase (to $550,000) in 2021. 46% of Seattle condos and 67% of Eastside condos sold in the first ten days on the market.

 

60% of Seattle condos and 77% of Eastside condos sold at or above their listed price. Those sold in the first 10 days on the market went for an average of 2% and 5% above their list price, respectively.

 

On the Seattle side, Shoreline condos saw a 43% increase—and on the Eastside, Sammamish and Redmond condos saw a 20% increase—in Median Sale Price driven by both new construction and buyer demand. West Bellevue saw an 18% decrease due to the lack of significant new construction following the debut of luxury new construction in 2020.

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report

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WATERFRONT

There were 170 privately-owned waterfront home sales in the greater Seattle-Eastside region in 2021 (Eastside 59; Seattle 48; Lake Sammamish 36; Mercer Island 27).

 

The waterfront home market continues to see incredible buyer demand coupled with an extreme shortage of available waterfront homes for sale. As an indicator of demand in the luxury segment, most homes sold near to or above their list price with few outliers—something that historically has rarely happened in this sector.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.

 

Waterfront Report

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Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com

© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.

Real Estate April 7, 2020

Economic Insights from Matthew Gardner

How will the coronavirus impact the housing market?

 

As we all hunker down through these challenging times, it is comforting to remember that there will be light at the end of the tunnel.

A voice of calm and reason in this time of uncertainty has been our Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. While he is expecting an economic slowdown accompanied by a temporary 15-20% reduction in the number of homes sold, he believes the housing market will bounce back once we find our new normal.

Click here to watch his latest videos, or scroll down for some key takeaways…

 

 


 

The US economy will contract sharply but should perk up by Q4.

We’re in for a rough few quarters as the economy enters a recession. Just how rough—and how long—is still under debate. What economists do agree on is that the 4th quarter is looking remarkably positive…assuming we get through the COVID-19 crisis and the economy can resume somewhat normal activity before the fall.

 

 


Housing prices will likely remain stable.

Seattle home prices should remain steady—or even rise slowly as we come out of the recession—for a few reasons:

  1. DIVERSE INDUSTRIES IN OUR AREA which allow us to better weather the economic storm.
  2. SOLID FINANCIAL FOOTING as one third of local home owners have 50% or greater equity in their homes.
  3. STRONG DEMAND with more buyers than homes available, as well as rock-bottom interest rates.

 

 


This will be different than 2008…

We’re experiencing a health crisis, not a housing crisis.

  1. WE’LL SEE A PAUSE, NOT A COLLAPSE. Unlike last time, the housing market was strong going into this crisis and should rebound quickly. Why? Because this recession will be due to specific external factors rather than any fundamental problem with the housing market.
  2. FORECLOSURES WILL BE FEWER with most lenders offering relief to homeowners in distress due to temporary employment issues. Unlike 2008’s mortgage crisis caused by lax lending standards and low down payments, today’s home owners are better qualified and have more equity in their homes.

 

 


 

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We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446

mercerisland@windermere.com

© Copyright 2020, Windermere Real Estate / Mercer Island

Real EstateSelling June 4, 2019

New Real Estate Excise Tax (REET) Rate (eff. 1/1/20)

We Want YOU...to Know About the Excise Tax Change

 

Now that Washington State Senate Bill 5998 has been signed into law, our local real estate excise tax—the tax paid when you sell a property—will be getting a facelift in 2020. The flat rate of the past will make way for a new tiered system which gives owners a tax cut on the first $500,000 of home value, keeps the current tax rate on the next $1 million of value, and then increases it sharply after $1.5 million.

 

The good news is that taxes will go down for the vast majority (~93%) of sellers in King County. Sellers of luxury homes that fetch more than $1.56m, however, will be paying more—much, much more in the case of multi-million dollar home sales.

 

Wondering how the changes might impact your bottom line when it comes time to sell? Scroll down or check out our quick reference worksheet

 

2020 CHnages to King County Excise Taxes

 

DETAILS & BACKGROUND

 

The previous flat state REET tax of 1.28% (1.78% after the 0.5% local portion is added) will be replaced on January 1, 2020, by the following rates (total REET after King County local portion is shown in parenthesis):

 

1.1% (1.6%) – Portion of selling price less than or equal to $500,000

1.28% (1.78%) – Portion of selling price greater than $500,000 and equal to or less than $1.5 million

2.75% (3.25%) – Portion of selling price greater than $1.5 million and equal to or less than $3 million

3.0% (3.5%) – Portion of selling price greater than $3 million


These thresholds may be adjusted again in 2022 and every four years after that using a formula for calculating value trends.


The current state real estate excise tax rate has been the same since July 1, 1989 while the local portion of the rate has been managed by each jurisdiction individually. You can find the full details in this Real Estate Excise Tax historical rates chart provided by the Department of Revenue.


The state provides a summary of the history and use of the real estate excise tax in Washington State detailing changes over the years. Currently, the bulk of the estate tax (92.3%) goes to the General Fund. Beginning January 1, 2020, and ending June 30, 2023, revenue distributions must be as follows: 1.7 percent must be deposited in the Public Works Assistance Account; 1.4 percent must be deposited in the City-County Assistance Account; 79.4 percent must be deposited in the general fund; and the remaining amount must be deposited in the Education Legacy Trust Account. Beginning July 1, 2023, and thereafter, revenue distributions to the Public Works Assistance Account increases to 5.2 percent. You can find the full law and definitions in Chapter 458-61A WAC (Washington Administrative Code).

 

SO WHAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE?

 

If you sell for $1,561,258 or less in King County, you will pay the same or less (up $900 less) in REET after 1/1/20. This is great news for most property owners in King County and across the state. Because the rate states the same on the portion of the selling price greater than $500,000 and equal to or less than $1.5 million as it currently is, all the savings comes in the portion below $500,000. This begins to whittle away as you creep above $1.5 million and into the higher tax rate of 2.75% (3.25%).


If you sell for more than that amount, you’ll be paying more–often much more. You can see from the quick reference chart below that the seller of a $2.5 million property will pay an additional $13,800, while a $5 million sale will cost an extra $55,550 and a $10 million sale a whopping $141,550 more.


Everyone will have a different take on the new tax rate, but if you have a valuable property and contributing more to the state’s coffers isn’t part of your charitable giving strategy, selling in 2019 might offer significant savings. On the other hand, selling in 2020 and beyond funds education and public works at greater levels than ever before, and that benefits everyone.

 

EXCISE TAX QUICK REFERENCE WORKSHEET


 

 

MERCER ISLAND


We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

 

© Copyright 2019, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Originally posted on Windermere Mercer Island’s “Local in Seattle” blog.